Agricultural trade plays a vital role in supporting livelihoods for farmers and workers across the agri-food supply chain, while also helping to reduce global food insecurity. A growing share of agro-food trade involves global value chains (GVCs) that span multiple countries, linking different stages of agricultural and food production and processing.
Context
More expensive fertiliser leads to more expensive crops
Scenario analysis indicates that a 25% increase in fertiliser prices could lead to a 5% rise in agricultural commodity prices. The impact is greater for fertiliser-intensive crops than for livestock, with the exception of poultry and pig meat, which are reliant on compound feed.
Other input cost fluctuations, i.e. in energy, seeds, labour, or machinery, also influence global food price volatility.
Change in agricultural commodity prices due to 25% increase in fertiliser prices
Export Restrictions and Agro-Food Market Stability
An OECD policy paper takes an in-depth look at the use of export restrictions on staple crops between January 2007 and April 2024. The data show that export restrictions increased during the global food price crisis of 2007-08, the COVID-19 pandemic, and following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the first period witnessing a significantly higher use of export restrictions than the two subsequent crises.
OECD’s recent update of the database on export restrictions on staple crops (covering export restrictions introduced up to June 2025) shows a sharp decline in export restrictions since mid-2024, as major players lifted quotas, taxes and prohibitions.
Such restrictions may hinder food access for vulnerable populations, disrupt agricultural supply chains, and create uncertainty in agro-food markets.
Uncertainty about the duration and scope of such trade policies may also lead firms and governments to make decisions based on incomplete information, resulting in significant and lasting consequences.
